The first wave of trade wars did not affect the world information industry chain, but after the second wave, tariffs were added to the 267 billion US dollars of products, including the communication products, and the global communications industry will be affected. If the event evolves to this point, it will affect the global supply chain. If the cost becomes higher, the price will increase and the demand will decrease. The Sino-US trade war will have a huge impact on 50% of semiconductor traders, and it will also hurt the international economy.

1 Trade war continues to plague semiconductor supply chains

The Trump administration’s tens of billions of dollars in tariffs on China’s imports and Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs have raised concerns about trade wars that will have an impact on China’s chip sales and create chains through supply chains. reaction.

If the scale of Sino-US trade wars is upgraded again, it will threaten to spread more Chinese system manufacturers.

Although it will affect the overall output of China’s electronics manufacturing industry, it will benefit to have the strength to complete domestically replaced electronic component manufacturers.

In the context of the tight global electronic component supply chain, compared with the world’s advanced level, the Chinese chip industry still has a huge gap.

When supply is tight, foreign companies with monopoly positions can take the opportunity to raise prices, while most domestic manufacturers do not have bargaining power.

The current Sino-US trade war continues to escalate and has been recognized as a protracted war for trade.

A major driver of the US trade war is to curb the development of China’s manufacturing industry and crack down on the “Made in China 2025″ plan. The semiconductor industry has not escaped the trade war.

This risk is now exposed and not entirely bad. The Sino-US trade war will force more system manufacturers to cooperate with domestic component manufacturers and spend more energy to tap the domestic market demand. This is an opportunity in risk.

2 The long-term goal of the US is still to promote local supply chain investment

The long-term policy goal of the United States will still be to promote the industry to invest and set up factories in the United States.

The United States originally intended to increase the cost of US companies’ overseas production through punitive tariffs through means of trade wars, undermining the comparative advantage of the original advantages of mainland China and other countries, enabling US companies to return to the United States to invest and expand their production capacity to meet their domestic markets. demand.

In this trade war, the biggest threat to mainland China comes from the semiconductor supply and software licenses of the US and other industries.

In this trade conflict, taking the ZTE incident as an example, the biggest bargaining chip in the United States is to implement the prohibition of component output and software licensing for Chinese mainland players. This will cause an immediate impact on mainland China, which is equivalent to slamming mainland China. The throat of the operator.

From the long-term strategy of the United States and China, the United States wants to strengthen downstream manufacturing capacity, combine existing software and semiconductor advantages, and build a complete domestic supply system, thereby leaving the company’s investment in the country and creating more employment opportunities.

Mainland China is eager to get rid of dependence on imported semiconductors and actively establish a supply chain for the local semiconductor industry.

3 China needs time to test for monopoly

However, in this trade conflict, not only the United States wants to establish more industrial supply chains in the country, but China will also actively build local supply chains after this trade conflict.

Unlike the United States, which is dominated by downstream manufacturing industries, mainland China is more active in upstream electronic components such as semiconductors and other industries and software industries.

4 Domestic integrated circuit market in recent years

Can be found to have the following characteristics

1 Although the market is large and self-sufficient, from the data of China’s integrated circuit import and export in 2013 to the year, in addition to the small amount of domestic chip occupancy in the communication equipment, the other fields are basically zero;

2 Although there are many inputs and slow development, from 2010 to 2017, the state’s investment in fixed assets of integrated circuits has reached 78 billion from 488.8 billion, and the corresponding chip industry has also shown good development momentum, but it is still difficult to meet the growing domestic demand. According to SEMI data, in 2017, Chinese companies can only meet 26% of local chip demand;

3 Insufficient revenue and low profit. Due to the high risk of high-tech industries, ZTE is used as an example. Its annual report shows that the revenue only accounts for about 20% of the company’s profit, which leads to the fact that although the state takes the lead in capital investment, there is no profit-driven power. Social capital is still reluctant to enter.

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