2014 is the DRAM industry is quite profitable harvest year. Benefit from the global smart phone continued selling tier DRAM makers have switched were acting memory; TrendForce’s memory storage career at DRAMeXchange estimates that 2014 action-type memory DRAM will account for 36% of overall output, 2015 a chance to break 40 percent mark.

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DRAMeXchange research associate Zuo Guo Rong said that, thanks to robust demand action type memory, thanks to the standard output relative reduction in memory, but let module prices has remained at high level, the 2014 average price of about $ 32 4GB modules, standard memory body average gross margin of 40%. Each DRAM makers toward comprehensive profit status, oligopoly market structure and market changes in the demand side will affect the future development of the DRAM industry in 2015.

DRAMeXchange forecast 2015 five DRAM industry market trends as follows:

(1) DRAM slowdown but the plants begin to profit as a priority

DRAM industry into oligopoly market structure, the only three DRAM makers begin to profit-oriented as a priority, carefully controlled to adjust the output and product categories, together with the global smart phone continues to maintain high growth, also allows capacity to action formula memory, squeezed into the output standard memory, so the standard memory market prices remain high water level, has become a cash cow DRAM factory, so the profit to produce dazzling aspects transcripts. DRAMeXchange DRAM estimated 2015 output value will reach $ 54.1 billion, the annual growth of 16% profit growth for the market to stabilize the year.

(2) Samsung and SK Hynix Jie new plant completed, depending on market demand dynamically adjust production capacity

Samsung (Samsung) and SK Hynix (Hynix) coincidentally announced in 2014 to expand the new plant in the news, capacity competition resurgence of rumors flying around, but DRAMeXchange pointed out that, in fact, Samsung, while the expansion of Line17′s, Line16 DRAM production capacity has quietly reduced and return NAND Division to use. And SK Hynix M14 is expected to vote next year in the fourth quarter only a small amount of pieces, large-scale investment pieces will only emerge in 2016.

Overall, DRAMeXchange that because the market demand will continue to grow, but rather to build for the future factory needs, just cast film output is planned, and the subsequent price decline quarter by quarter, although it will, but as long as the process turn into a continuous basis, DRAM makers are still able to maintain profitability in the current water level.

(3) action type memory leapt mainstream, LPDDR4 coming next year

2014 smart phone into the parity of the many low-cost high-regulation models in the global market to conquer new territories, so that emerging market set off a wave of replacement smart phones. Zuo Guo Rong said that in the smart phone market constantly expanding, 2015 action-type memory is also close to 40% market share of the global market, accounting for 27% compared to standard memory, action-type memory has risen to global DRAM market mainstream products.

On the other hand, the action type of memory do observed in 2015 is still the mainstream specifications LPDDR3, output amounted to more than 60%, while the first application of the new specifications LPDDR4 flagship smartphone models in the next year, regardless of the power saving mechanism with the clock surpassed LPDDR3, expected in 2015 will reach 15% market share.

(4) 20nm become the main battlefield, but the increase in capital spending will make the process turn into slowing down

Korean series 25nm process DRAM plant in the second half of 2014 has entered the mature stage, regardless of the size of yield and cast films have become the mainstream DRAM specifications. As for the 20nm process, Samsung has entered the validation phase, SK Hynix is expected to enter the market in the second start of the season next year; in contrast, Micron (Micron) is currently planning only Inotera have 20nm process of standard memory, turn into progress compared with the two Korean factory behind the goal by the end of 2015 to reach 80K cast films.

DRAMeXchange said that, due to enter the 20nm process needs more equipment to produce, implies the need for more capital spending, however, profit-oriented, the proportion of the plants turn into 20nm process will be slowed down.

(5) by the end of 2015 with DDR4 server market share is expected to exceed 50% mark

In the full cooperation of Intel (Intel) and a strong leading DRAM factory, DDR4 memory will be the first cut in the server field. Guo Rong Zuo said server memory in addition to stability requirements, but more recently inked both low voltage and speed. According to JEDEC specification, DDR4 voltage only 1.2V, the future rate can be as high 3200Mhz. The price is also working with the server part with DDR3 gradually close, DRAMeXchange expected DDR4 fastest at the end of 2015 to replace DDR3, memory became mainstream server market.